Backcasting

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Objectives

Backcasting allows a group of people to weigh up the implications of different future options or policy goals.

Method

  1. Define future goals and objectives, projecting 25-50 years into the future.
  2. Specify the scenario by analysing the technological and physical characteristics of a path that would lead towards the specified goals.
  3. Evaluate the scenario in terms of physical, technological and socio-economic feasibility and policy implications.
  4. Brainstorm ways this desired end-point can be achieved, working backwards to the present.

Example

Guadalentı´n (Spain) and the Vald’Agri (Italy) workshops about the developing of local scenarios [1].

Source

  1. To deepen your knowledge on backcasting: Quist J,, Vergragt P. Past and future of backcasting: The shift to stakeholder participation and a proposal for a methodological frameworkFutures 38 (2006) 1027–1045.
  1. ↑ Kok et al, Multi-scale narratives from an IA perspective: Part II. Participatory local scenario development, Futures 38 (2006) 285–311.
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