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| − | Coastal cities and climate change
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| − | This article deals with the potential impact of climate change on cities that are located on the coast and therefore vulnerable to sea level rise and extreme conditions at sea. The focus is on coastal cities in low-income countries which are exposed to the greatest risks.
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| − | == Vulnerability to climate change ==
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| − | [[Image:PopulationCoastalCities.jpg|thumb|400px|left|Figure 1: Population of coastal cities around 1950 and in 2020. Adapted from Barragan et al. (2015) <ref name=BA>Barragan, J.M. and de Andres, M. 2015. Analysis and trends of the world's coastal cities and agglomerations. Ocean & Coastal Management 114; 11-20 </ref>. ]]
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| − | Coastal cities have experienced tremendous growth in recent decades, especially in Africa and Asia <ref name=BA></ref>, see Fig. 1. Whereas in the past coastal zones were sparsely inhabited, vast urban centers have developed in short time. An important part of the economy of coastal states is concentrated in these centers. Many coastal cities have grown organically, without proper planning and due attention to the vulnerability that results from their location by the sea. This vulnerability already manifests itself at extreme weather conditions, which go along with flooding, loss of life <ref>Jonkman, S.N. and Vrijling, J.K. 2008. Loss of life due to floods. J Flood Risk Management 1: 43–56</ref> and damage to the buildings along the coast.
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| − | The article [[Sea level rise]] describes the consequences of climate change for sea-level rise and the associated increase in the frequency of high water under extreme conditions. It is expected that this frequency will increase by a factor of 100 in many places in the coming century and even more in the following period<ref name=I>IPCC, 2019. Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate [Eds.: H.-O. Pörtner, D.C. Roberts, V. Masson-Delmotte, P. Zhai, M. Tignor, E. Poloczanska, K. Mintenbeck, M. Nicolai, A. Okem, J. Petzold, B. Rama and N. Weyer]</ref>. Without timely measures, the consequences for almost all coastal cities in the world will be dramatic.
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| − | The increase in the frequency and severity of floods has a strong disruptive influence on the community and the economy in coastal cities. An estimate can be made of these risks, to assess which measures are needed and to determine their urgency. There are also indirect consequences because of less favourable economic prospects as the risks to which coastal cities are confronted are increasing. Declining investments in high-risk areas and related fall in income from industry and tourism can also lead to economic and social disruption <ref name=VB>Vivekananda, J. and Bhatiya, N. 2016. Coastal Megacities vs. the Sea: Climate and Security in Urban Spaces. BRIEFER 30: 1-12</ref>. Coastal cities with weak governance, a poor and growing population and a large influx of migrants are particularly sensitive to these risks.
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| − | ==Causes of increasing vulnerability==
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| − | The causes of increasing vulnerability are multiple and not only related to climate change. A number of important causes that enhance vulnerability to climate change are briefly discussed below.
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| − | '''The geographical setting.''' Many coastal towns lie in low-lying coastal plains, often near estuaries or lagoons <ref>McGranahan, G., Balk, D. and Anderson, B. 2006. The rising tide: assessing the risks of climate change and human settlements in low elevation coastal zones. Environ Urban 12: 17–38</ref><ref name=N> Neumann, B., Vafeidis, A. T., Zimmermann J. and Nicholls, R. J. 2015. Future coastal population growth and exposure to sea-level rise and coastal flooding – a global assessment. PLOS ONE 10: 1-34</ref>. They have grown from first settlements on elevated soils (dune areas or rock formations) along the coast. When higher ground was no longer available, urban expansion took place in surrounding areas: swamps, marshes or lagoons that were drained or filled up, see Fig. 2. These areas are often below the high-water level of the nearby sea or river and collect water from the surrounding higher grounds in the event of heavy rainfall. They are therefore very susceptible to flooding. Such geographical conditions are an important factor for the vulnerability of many major coastal cities and for their sensitivity to climate change.
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| − | [[Image:ExpansionCoastalCities.jpg|thumb|800px|center|Figure 2: Schematic representation of the characteristic geographical setting of coastal towns that were built in delta plains, close to estuaries or lagoons. Left panel: The original settlement was built on high ground. Right panel: For urban expansion the surrounding lowlands (marshland, lagoons) were reclaimed by drainage and landfills. These areas are vulnerable to flooding.]]
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| − | [[Image:SubsidenceCoastalCities.jpg|thumb|400px|left|Figure 3: Subsidence in a few coastal megacities <ref name=D>Deltares, Sinking cities https://www.deltares.nl/app/uploads/2015/09/Sinking-cities.pdf</ref>.]]
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| − | '''Soil subsidence.''' The low-lying coastal areas in which urban expansion has taken place often have a soft soil, which largely consists of clay and organic material. These soils cannot bear great weight and therefore require adequate foundation of buildings and infrastructure, which is often not present. In addition, these soils are sensitive to compaction due to drainage and oxidation. Extraction of groundwater (and in some cases gas or oil) reinforces the subsidence. In several coastal megacities, subsidence of several centimeters per year has been measured in places, see Fig. 3 <ref name=D><ref> Syvitski, J.P.M., Kettner, A.J., Overeem, I., Hutton, E.W.H., Hannon, M,T., Brakenridge, G.R., Day, J., Vörösmarty, C., Saito, Y., Giosan, L. and Nicholls, R.J. 2009. Sinking deltas.</ref>. Such a strong subsidence significantly increases the sensitivity of these areas to flooding.
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| − | '''Population growth.''' Demographic growth in developing countries is particularly strong in rural areas. Water scarcity, especially in Africa, reduces the availability of suitable agricultural land <ref> Koutroulis, A.G., Papadimitriou, L.V., Grillakis, M.G., Tsanis, I.K., Warren, R. and Betts, R.A. 2019. Global water availability under high-end climate change: A vulnerability based assessment. Global and Planetary Change 175: 52–63</ref>, while mechanization reduces the need for manpower. These trends make that new generations can no longer earn a living<ref> Seto, K.C., 2011. Exploring the dynamics of migration to mega-delta cities in Asia and Africa: contemporary drivers and future scenarios. Global Environ. Change 21: S94-S107</ref>. They flock to the large urban centers along the coast to find employment. Many of them lack education and do not have the means to settle in safe places and often live unregistered in slums in the least safe areas, including the seashore and river banks (illustrated in Fig. 4). The habitants of these areas do not have sanitary facilities, safe drinking water and are the first victims of flooding. They form the most vulnerable group because, due to their precarious living conditions, they cannot make provisions against the effects of climate change <ref name=VB> </ref>.
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| − | [[Image:SlumsMonrovia.jpg|thumb|800px|center|Figure 4: Slums on a sandspit at the coast of Monrovia (Liberia).]]
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| − | '''Water quality.''' In low-income countries, it is difficult to provide public facilities in the coastal megacities to the rapidly growing population. This not only concerns protection against flooding, but also waste removal, sewage collection and treatment and safe drinking water<ref> Penning de Vries, F.W.T., Acquay, H., Molden, D., Scherr, S.J., Valentin, C. and Cofie, O. 2002. Integrated Land and Water Management for Food and Environmental Security. Global Environmental Facility. Comprehensive Assessment Research Paper Colombo, Sri Lanka</ref>. Drainage systems are often defective or even missing completely. The discharge of waste from households and industry is poorly regulated and insufficiently enforced. The population is therefore exposed to harmful substances that cause diseases and premature death. Higher temperatures increase the risk of infectious diseases. The greatest risks of exposure occur during floods in which waste water is spreading everywhere. Degraded water quality also has a strong negative impact on fishing, which is important for food supply and for employment and income of a substantial part of the population.
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| − | '''Degradation of natural protection.''' Marshes, mangroves and coral reefs offer natural protection against flooding in extreme weather conditions. The growth of megacities often came at the expense of this natural protection. Wetlands have been reclaimed for urbanization and mangroves have been harvested for timber and to make way for fish ponds<ref>Agardy, T. and Alder, J. (lead authors) 2005. Millennium Ecosystem Assessment Chapter 19 Coastal Systems. Washington, D.C., Island Press</ref>. Dunes and beaches are often partially excavated to extract sand for landfill; corals and shell banks are used as raw materials for construction <ref>Wilkinson, C. 2001. Status of coral reefs of the world 2000. Queensland (Australia): Australia Institute of Marine Science</ref>. Although these latter practices are often prohibited, enforcement fails to prevent this. The impoverishment of the natural ecosystem that results from these practices causes a further accelerated deterioration of the protection that nature offers.
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| − | '''Weak governance.''' Failing governance is a major problem in developing countries. Steering the aforementioned issues is an enormous challenge, in particular the issue of rapid population growth and the mass influx of poorly educated migrants. Tax collection systems often fall short for providing the financial resources needed to cope with the legacy of poor infrastructure and inadequate coastal zone planning and to make necessary investments (including health care and education). There is a lack of well-trained staff and therefore lack of competence within government institutions. The governmental organization is generally weak and institutions do not work well together. Legal provisions are not well aligned with existing problems, legal provisions are not being properly enforced, land ownership rights are unclear, decision-making processes are poorly organized, without proper involvement of civil society and administrative procedures are insufficiently effective<ref> Diop, S. and Scheren, P.A. 2016. Sustainable oceans and coasts: Lessons learnt from Eastern and Western Africa. Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science 183: 327-339</ref><ref> Tabet, L. and Fanning, L. 2012. Integrated coastal zone management under authoritarian rule: An evaluation framework of coastal governance in Egypt. Ocean & Coastal Management 61: 1-9</ref><ref> Le, T.D.N. 2019. Climate change adaptation in coastal cities of developing countries: characterizing types of vulnerability and adaptation options. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11027-019-09888-z</ref><ref> Varis, O. 2006. Megacities, development and water. Int. J.Water Resour. Dev. 22: 199-225</ref>. There are often important cultural differences between representatives of different population groups, which hinder standing up for a common interest. The overwhelming amount of short-term problems pushes long-term developments into the background. Therefore, anticipating the effects of climate change does not have the priority that is required.
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| − | ==Most vulnerable cities==
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| − | [[Image:ClimateChangeVulnerabilityCoastalCities.jpg|thumb|500px|left|Table 1: Exposure and vulnerability of coastal cities to flood risks exacerbated by sea level rise. Dark red: very high vulnerability (very high exposure / very high socio-economic sensitivity / weak adaptive capacity / very strong increase of population at risk); Yellow: high vulnerability / weak-medium adaptive capacity; Green: medium-low vulnerability / medium-strong adaptive capacity.]]
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| − | Various lists of highly vulnerable coastal cities have appeared in the literature. The ranking depends on the criteria used. Table 1 gives an (non-exhaustive) overview of coastal cities that are often cited for their vulnerability to climate change. For each coastal city, it is indicated which aspects influence vulnerability the most. The overview is based on an the inventories of the World Wide Fund For Nature (WWF, 2009)<ref> WWF 2009. Mega-Stress for Mega-Cities, A Climate Vulnerability Ranking of Major Coastal Cities in Asia</ref>, Hanson (2011)<ref name=Ha>Hanson, S., Nicholls, R., Ranger, N., Hallegatte, S., Corfee-Merlot, J., Herweyer, C. and Chateau, J. 2011. A global ranking of port cities with high exposure to climate extremes. Climatic Change 104: 89–111</ref>, Neumann et al. (2015)<ref name=N></ref>, <ref> Wang, G., Liu, Y., Wang, H. and Wang, X. 2014. A comprehensive risk analysis of coastal zones in China. Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science 140: 22-31</ref>, Dhinan et al. (2019)<ref> Dhiman, R., VishnuRadhan, R., Eldho, T. I. and Inamdar, A. 2019. Flood risk and adaptation in Indian coastal cities: recent scenarios. Applied Water Science 9:5</ref>, Hallegatte et al. (2013)<ref name=Ha> Hallegatte, S., Green, C., Nicholls, R.J. and Corfee-Morlot, J. 2013. Future flood losses in major coastal cities. Nature Climate Change 3: 802-806</ref>.
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| − | The table shows that the exposure to flood risks is already very high in many cities today (existing flood protection measures are taken into account). The consequences of flooding are serious in all cases. Low-income countries are less well organized and have fewer resources than rich countries to take measures for reducing vulnerability. Without further measures, there is a strong or very strong increase in flood exposure of the population due to climate change in all coastal cities.
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| − | ==Adaptation measures==
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| − | An overview of climate adaptation measures is given in the article [[Climate adaptation policies for the coastal zone]]. Below we will discuss in more detail measures that are particularly relevant for coastal cities in low-income countries. These measures relate to the vulnerabilities listed in the section [[#Causes of increasing vulnerability]].
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| − | Climate adaptation stands or falls with the ability of governments to take in time appropriate adaptation measures. A major obstacle to risk reduction measures are the high costs and the lack of an immediate tangible effect. Broad support for such measures often arises only after a disaster has occurred. Anticipatory measures that require shared sacrifices will not easily receive broad support in communities where social inequality is strong. However, it is possible to incorporate climate adaptation in measures that deliver direct social benefits, such as: reduction of social inequality through equitable taxes and income redistribution, investments in education and health care, good affordable housing and improvement of the infrastructure for water and sanitation <ref name = VB></ref>. Measures can be designed such that they contribute to reduce the potential impact of climate change, e.g. by increasing the resilience of citizens, by providing faster and better emergency aid, by building flood-proof homes, by securing critical infrastructure, by preventing the dispersal of hazardous substances and by faster drainage of flood waters. Such measures can be implemented step by step, depending on the resources available. Measures that can be realized at short term are the implementation of organizations for early warning, emergency interventions and rescue. See also the articles [[Integrated Coastal Zone Management (ICZM)]] and [[Climate adaptation policies for the coastal zone]].
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| − | City planning is a crucial instrument for increasing the resilience of coastal cities to flooding. City planning must first of all prevent development in zones that are most sensitive to flooding. Setback areas must be defined along the coast, see the article [[Setback area]]. These areas are often already built on and relocating the local population may be needed. This is not easily done and requires not only good alternative housing. To obtain support and cooperation, authorities should communicate intensively as a listening and reliable partner with inhabitants during the planning and relocation process. Adaptation of the local infrastructure is necessary to better manage storm and flood water. This can be realized by giving water more space in the city, as illustrated in Fig. 5. In addition, an efficient drainage infrastructure with sufficient pumping capacity is required. Water supply from remote sources must ensure that no groundwater needs to be pumped up, in order to reduce subsidence. Building regulations must ensure that houses are resistant to flooding and that residents can secure themselves on higher floors; existing buildings have to be refitted if necessary. These adaptations are costly and require appropriate funding mechanisms. <ref>Satterthwaite, D., Huq, S., Pelling, M., Reid, H. and Lankao, P. R. 2007. Adapting to Climate Change in Urban Areas. IIED, Rockefeller Foundation. www.iied.org/pubs/display.php?o=10549IIED </ref>. A broad spectrum of issues is related to urban water management (see Fig. 6); therefore, an integrated approach is required.
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| − | [[File:RoomForWaterCoastalCities.jpg|thumb|left|400px|Figure 5: Examples of room for water in Dutch cities.]]
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| − | [[File:WaterAssessmentAmsterdam.jpg|thumb|left|500px|Figure 6: Assessment of policy objectives related to urban water management for the city of Amsterdam<ref>Koop, S. H. A., and Van Leeuwen, C. J. 2015. Assessment of the Sustainability of Water Resources Management: A Critical Review of the City Blueprint Approach Water Resources Management 29: 5649-5670</ref>.]]
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| − | Restraining the migration from the countryside to the urban centres along the coast requires political priority for rural development. Agricultural policy should tackle existing obstacles to rural development. It comprises a broad spectrum of measures, for example, investing in knowledge development and knowledge sharing of efficient modern farming techniques, creating financial mechanisms for their implementation and creating insurance mechanisms against crop failures, regulating land ownership, improving agricultural product marketing mechanisms, stimulating the development of local food processing industries, improving water supply and irrigation practices and investing in infrastructure for transport, warehousing, cold storage and wholesale markets, etc. <ref> FAO 2017. The State of Food and Agriculture - leveraging food systems for inclusive rural transformation. http://www.fao.org/3/a-i7658e.pdf </ref>. By reducing migration to urban centers, policies to improve prosperity and economic growth in agricultural areas are therefore an important complement to policies for reducing the vulnerability of coastal towns.
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| − | Sea level rise is a major threat to coastal cities worldwide<ref>Wong, P.P., I.J. Losada, J.-P. Gattuso, J. Hinkel, A. Khattabi, K.L. McInnes, Y. Saito, and A. Sallenger 2014. Coastal systems and low-lying areas. In: Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part A: Global and Sectoral Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Field, C.B., V.R. Barros, D.J. Dokken, K.J. Mach, M.D. Mastrandrea, T.E. Bilir, M. Chatterjee, K.L. Ebi, Y.O. Estrada, R.C. Genova, B. Girma, E.S. Kissel, A.N. Levy,S. MacCracken, P.R. Mastrandrea, and L.L. White (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, pp. 361-40</ref>. Large parts of many coastal cities are situated today below the water level reached at sea during a 1/100 storm<ref>Muis, S., Verlaan, M., Winsemius, H.C., Aerts, J.C.J.H. and Ward, P.J. 2018. A global reanalysis of storm surges and extreme sea levels. Nat. Commun. 7:11969</ref><ref name=Ha></ref>; the frequency of exceedance of these storm levels may increase by a factor 10 or 100 during the 21st century<ref name=V>Vousdoukas, M.I., Mentaschi, L., Voukouvalas, E., Verlaan, M., Jevrejeva, S., Jackson, L.P. and Feyen, L. 2018. Global probabilistic projections of extreme sea levels show intensification of coastal flood hazard. Nature communications, 9 (1), 2360</ref><ref name=I></ref>. Constructions to protect against overtopping waves are often needed and generally already in place.
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| − | Different types of constructions can be considered for protection against flooding from the sea. Hard structures are used most often. An overview of such constructions with criteria of application, advantages and disadvantages is given in several articles in the category [[:Category: Hard structures|Hard structures]]. The costs of coastal defenses depend on the intended level of protection, i.e. the size and strength of the structure required to keep the probability of flooding below a certain value. An overview of cost estimates is given in Jonkman et al. (2013)<ref>Jonkman, S.N., Hillen, M.M., Nicholls, R.J., Kanning, W. and van Ledden, M. 2013. Costs of adapting coastal defences to sea-level rise—New estimates and their implications. J. Coast. Res. 29: 1212–1226</ref> and Aerts (2018)<ref> Aerts, J.C.J.H. 2018. A Review of Cost Estimates for Flood Adaptation. Water 10, 1646 </ref>. The costs for ensuring a high level of protection are considerable, but in many cases much lower than the costs of avoided damage in the event of flooding<ref name=Ha></ref>. Costly defense measures are also justified to protect people and to avoid strong social impacts<ref name=N></ref>. Some highly exposed coastal cities are listed in Table 1, but this list is far from exhaustive.
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| − | [[Image:KatwijkCoastalProtection.jpg|thumb|300px|left|Figure 7: The coastal village Katwijk (Netherlands) has been protected by an artificial dune built in front of the seashore boulevard with sand extracted far offshore. A parking space has been created for beach tourists on the inside of this multifunctional structure.]]
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| − | Soft coastal defense options have become more popular in recent decades, see the articles in the category [[:Category: Soft coastal interventions|Soft coastal interventions]] and some examples in the article [[Climate adaptation policies for the coastal zone]]. These soft measures are usually more resilient and easier to maintain, but cannot be used everywhere, e.g. because materials are not available or because space is insufficient. Van Coppenolle and Temmerman (2019) <ref> Van Coppenolle, R, and Temmerman, S. 2019. A global exploration of tidal wetland creation for nature-based flood risk mitigation in coastal cities. Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science 226, 106262</ref> have made an inventory of the potential of coastal cities to implement soft coastal protection measures. An example of an artificial dune as soft coastal protection measure is shown in Fig. 7. Other soft nature-based coastal protection measures, such as mangroves, marshes or reefs, can provide cost-effective solutions to reduce the wave impact on urbanized coasts<ref>Narayan, S., Beck, M., Reguero, B., Losada, I., Van Wesenbeeck, B., Pontee, N., Sanchirico, J., Ingram, J., Lange, G. and Burks-Copes, K. 2016. The Effectiveness, Costs and Coastal Protection Benefits of Natural and Nature-Based Defences. PLoS ONE 11, e0154735</ref>.
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| − | ==References==
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